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Amara’s Law and the hard work of AI adoption
Amara’s Law is alive and well in AI.
By Phil Kinsley
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Amara’s Law is alive and well in AI.
Roy Amara, a researcher at the Institute for the Future, observed that “we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” This principle has become known as Amara’s Law.
In the short run, AI is drowning in hype. Every vendor markets “AI powered” tools and every boardroom is promised instant transformation. But many of these solutions are superficial wrappers that create new risks rather than value.
The lasting impact of AI will not come from glossy demos. It will come from the hard work of governance, cybersecurity, risk management, and trust. True transformation happens when AI is securely embedded into enterprise operations, protecting data, strengthening defenses, and enabling innovation at scale.
Here is the contrarian point: while the short term is overhyped, the long term is still underestimated. AI will not only enhance workflows. It will reshape how organizations secure themselves, govern information, and build resilience.
The leaders who prepare now, for both opportunity and threat, will define the future.
Original publication
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